{"id":18376,"date":"2024-11-22T20:29:53","date_gmt":"2024-11-22T20:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gpt.m2mbeta.com\/?p=18376"},"modified":"2024-11-22T20:29:53","modified_gmt":"2024-11-22T20:29:53","slug":"poll-who-will-secure-afcs-third-wild-card-spot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gpt.m2mbeta.com\/?p=18376","title":{"rendered":"Poll: Who Will Secure AFC\u2019s Third Wild-Card Spot?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders\u2019 blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>ESPN\u2019s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens\u2019 chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year\u2019s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.<\/p>\n

Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference\u2019s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.<\/p>\n

The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson<\/a><\/strong> release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver\u2019s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB\u2019s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton<\/strong>\u2018s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons<\/a><\/strong> and Jerry Jeudy<\/a><\/strong>, they resisted Courtland Sutton<\/a><\/strong> trade offers<\/a> \u2014 including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August \u2014 and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix<\/a><\/strong>. The Oregon alum\u2019s progress defines Denver\u2019s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway<\/strong>, amplifying the interest in Nix\u2019s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph<\/strong>\u2018s defense has proven better than expected.<\/p>\n

Extending Patrick Surtain<\/a><\/strong> in September and paying<\/a> Jonathon Cooper<\/a><\/strong> just before trading Baron Browning<\/a><\/strong>, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.<\/p>\n

Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow<\/a><\/strong>. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins<\/a><\/strong> missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins<\/a>, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/a><\/strong>\u2018s extension price \u2014 a matter tabled to 2025<\/a> \u2014 will rise coming out of this season.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Chase\u2019s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team\u2019s 2021 and \u201922 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins<\/a><\/strong> and Geno Stone<\/a><\/strong> while reacquiring Vonn Bell<\/a><\/strong>, but Lou Anarumo<\/strong>\u2018s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC\u2019s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio\u2019s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.<\/p>\n

Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel<\/strong>\u2018s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa<\/a><\/strong>\u2018s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa\u2019s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league\u2019s worst.<\/p>\n

Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill<\/a><\/strong> nor Jaylen Waddle<\/a><\/strong> has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill\u2019s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received<\/a> via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.<\/p>\n

As Miami\u2019s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth \u2014 something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 \u2014 its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips<\/a><\/strong> and Bradley Chubb<\/a><\/strong>. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year\u2019s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens<\/a> at the deadline \u2014 proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis\u2019 season. The team\u2019s about-face with<\/a> Anthony Richardson<\/a><\/strong> reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.<\/p>\n

Still, Richardson\u2019s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco<\/a><\/strong> in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.<\/p>\n

GM Chris Ballard<\/strong> mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack<\/a><\/strong> has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson\u2019s development still overshadows their season\u2019s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.<\/p>\n

Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference\u2019s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR\u2019s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n