Rhodes tells Rotarians Electoral College may send Trump back to White House

“And he’s 91 years old,” quipped Art Rhodes during the Rotary Club of Cleveland’s meeting on Tuesday.

Rhodes, who is also a Rotarian, knows a little bit about the elections. In 2000, he assisted the Bush Campaign in Palm Beach County during the Florida recount.

With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, Rhodes, once again peered into the crystal ball to predict who will be the next President of the United States.

It’s a forecast he’s made for several presidential election cycles since becoming a Rotarian in 1999.

First, Rhodes listed some disclaimers.

“The first one is this: our discussion today is going to be truly for entertainment purposes,” he said. 

Second, Rhodes said his forecasts are not reflective of his employer, the Church of God International Offices, where he is president and CEO of its benefits board, nor the Bradley County Election Commission, on which he serves.

Although Vice President and Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris will probably win the popular vote by as much as 7 million votes on Tuesday, Rhodes said Trump’s return to the White House could be achieved by winning the Electoral College by at least 270 votes.

Two swing states, Georgia and Pennsylvania, may ultimately decide the above result, according to Rhodes.

If Harris clinches Georgia, where demographics are turning the state blue, she could win the presidential race. If Trump, a Republican, secures Pennsylvania — where Rhodes said rural voters in the middle of the state, as well as a growing number of suburban residents near Philadelphia are increasingly leaning Republican — Trump could return to the White House.

“Is that going to provide for calm and peace in this country?” Rhodes asked. “The concern is probably not.”

But what if the Electoral College is tied? If so, the election is decided by the U.S. Congress in what is called a contingent election.

And for those who took civic class years ago, don’t worry; it’s improbable anyone remembers the steps taken if a presidential election comes to a draw in the Electoral College.

In a tie scenario, the U.S. House of Representatives, controlled by the Republican Party, chooses the president. The Democratically controlled U.S. Senate selects the vice president.

“So, there could be a president from one party and a vice president from the other,” Rhodes said.

Rhodes said the House votes on the top three electoral candidates.

“But there are only 50 votes cast in the house,” he said. “Each state delegation gets one vote.”

Currently, the House is made up of 26 Republican delegations and 22 Democratic delegations, followed by North Carolina and Minnesota, where the delegations are tied. 

“They have the same number of Republicans and Democrats,” he said.

If North Carolina’s delegation is made up of a majority of Republicans after the election, which Rhodes said is expected to transpire, the House delegation will be made up of 27 Republicans and 22 Democrats, plus Minnesota, which most likely will remain tied.

“So, figure out how that will work,” Rhodes said.

Over in the Senate, each senator gets one vote.

“You have 100 votes in the Senate,” Rhodes said. “They only get to choose from the top two electoral candidates.” 

Note: Members of Congress elected in November and seated in January will be the legislators to decide who is the next president.

However, if the House cannot make a selection, the vice president chosen in the Senate could become a temporary chief executive on Jan. 20. 

Rhodes said the House could very well be unable to make a presidential selection due to disfunction.

“A year ago, we went for a month without a Speaker of the House,” he said.

In the meantime, while Republicans are arguing in the House and if their fellow party members take control of the Senate, a possibility in the Nov. 5 election, Rhodes said the president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate chosen to temporarily serve as president could be the most senior member of that deliberative body: Charles Grassley, a Republican senator who is a decade older than President Joe Biden.

If Democrats retain control of the Senate, U.S. Sen. Patty Murray (D-Washington), the current president pro tempore, would be selected.

The process of succession will be further complicated if cabinet members have not yet been chosen.

By his own admission, Rhodes conceded his record regarding presidential predictions is … well, if he were a baseball player, he would be “batting a thousand.”

In 2000, he forecast Trump’s reelection.

“For those of you who have heard me do this before, I have been 100% wrong every time,” Rhodes said.